AUSTIN (KXAN) — Another powerful upper-level drop is diving through the four corners at the end of the week. This will lead to an increased chance of rain on Friday as moisture moves north of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. This storm will eventually send a cold front into our area on Saturday, greatly increasing our risk of strong to severe storms.
Preliminary forecasts suggest that the chance of severe weather increases across western Texas into Oklahoma on Friday ahead of the front. The area in yellow marked by the Storm Prediction Center gives a 15% chance of experiencing severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
While there is still no official severe risk area designated by the Storm Prediction Center on Saturday, we expect this threat to expand across Central Texas over the next few days as better data emerges and confidence builds.
We think our best chance for bad weather will be on Saturday. There’s still too much uncertainty regarding timing and intensity, but here’s what the European model shows for Saturday as the cold front moves through our area.
Many of our computer models show that this storm will also bring widespread heavy rain, with some areas picking up 1-2 inches. This beneficial rain has the potential to significantly damage our drought.
Stay with KXAN as we get more details on the rain schedule and the risk of severe weather in the coming days.