With Ukraine dependent on Western military aid following the invasion of Russia and Moscow burning stocks and under sanctions, both sides fear they will run out of bullets, bombs and missiles, experts say.
Moscow’s economic exclusion means it “must purchase artillery shells from North Korea,” US National Security Council coordinator John Kirby recently told reporters, pointing to deals for “millions of shells, rockets and artillery shells “.
Meanwhile, the UK’s defense ministry said this week that Russia is “likely to have difficulty maintaining stocks” of drones. Sanctions prevent Moscow from obtaining vital components needed to replace drones destroyed in combat.
The Kremlin would buy drones from Iran.
The Western and Kiev governments say Russia is suffering from severe logistical difficulties.
Obsolete weapons
Precision attacks with high-tech Western weapons are undermining Russia’s combat capability, and Moscow is turning to outdated weapons as its supplies of more modern equipment run out.
“It’s a mystery what the Russians left behind,” said Pierre Grasser, a research associate at the Sorbonne University in Paris.
“They had enough supplies for their original plan,” he said. “But the fact is that the war is going on longer than expected and the destruction of their reserves by US-made HIMARS rockets is shuffling the cards.”
“Moscow doesn’t have many allies who can supply it or help its industrialists,” he added. And “China continues to refuse to engage outside the diplomatic field”.
As for North Korea’s isolated communist regime, “there will probably be a limit to what Pyongyang can donate, just enough to replenish supplies for a few weeks,” he said.
Last week, French researcher Bruno Tertrais of the Foundation for Strategic Research said: “The risks of Russian military fatigue are much higher than Ukrainian military fatigue.”
But Kiev continues to demand weapons and ammunition from the West, which in turn could reach the limits of its capabilities.
On Thursday, the United States announced it would provide an additional $ 675 million in military equipment.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made the announcement in Germany, where Ukraine’s allies met to discuss coordinating their renditions.
Washington also said it will provide an additional $ 2 billion in loans and grants to Ukraine and its neighbors to purchase US military hardware.
This is in addition to the $ 4 billion it cleared in the fiscal year ended June.
Social media accounts specializing in weapon identification have identified Pakistani and Iranian shells fired by Ukrainian artillery, suggesting that Kiev has built several supply chains for its troops.
But the Germany-based Institute for the World Economy (IFW) said last month that “the flow of new international support for Ukraine … ran out in July,” with no major new promises. European Union countries such as Germany, France or Italy.
On the other hand, the IFW noted that more countries are finally fulfilling their pledges of help in Kiev.
NATO supplies
NATO countries supplied nearly half a million shells for the roughly 240 155-millimeter guns sent to Ukraine to replace Soviet weapons that had run out of ammunition, Grasser said. .
“Since July, 3,000 bullets have been used per day. Technically, Ukraine can continue until the beginning of winter, “she added.” However, beyond that there are questions about how much NATO can deliver. “
Given the relative strengths and casualties on both sides, Western aid to Ukraine falls far short of what is needed to win the war and replace destroyed equipment, said Andrei Illarionov, the president’s former economic adviser. Russian Vladimir Poutine.
Illarionov, who now works for the US-based Center for Security Policy, said that during World War II the Allies did not really start withdrawing the Axis until 1943, once their expenses had exceeded those of the their opponents.
“Military aid provided to Ukraine does not exceed $ 3 billion per month. Total expenses [by] Ukraine plus the coalition looks like $ 7 billion a month, “he said last week at an event in Bucharest organized by the think tank New Strategy Center.
As for Russia, “several estimates have recently been provided – between $ 500 and $ 900 million a day – which means $ 15 to $ 27 billion a month,” he added.
“In the war of attrition, the fundamental underlying factor [for] who could win the long war is the military spending ratio, “Illarionov said.
“In military terms,” Grasser said, “both sides are equal. The Ukrainians have fewer weapons than the Russians, but they are now much more accurate.
But, he noted, “in its favor, Moscow has access to vital raw materials for the war effort.”
“We are entering a period of unstable equilibrium. Whoever launches one counter-offensive too many risks losing the battle of attrition ”, concluded Grasser.