Pictured: Resident Evil and The Lincoln Lawyer
When it comes to renewals and cancellations, it used to be like solving Rubiks cubes, but as more analytics companies come online and Netflix becomes more transparent, predicting the fate of shows is getting easier.
Digital I, a London-based analytics company, is one of those new analytics companies that can provide insight into what’s going on behind the scenes. Using their SoDA (Streaming on Demand Analytics) technology, they can determine numerous factors about shows, including what were the biggest hits on the first day, data on the weekly anti-binge debate and insights into children’s usage.
What we’re focusing on today is completion rates using their European panel. This data undoubtedly plays a role in whether a show gets renewed or cancelled, and how Netflix‘s internal metrics, “adjusted viewership share,” “performance score,” and “impact value” are evaluated.
Marketing director Sofia Vahdati told us: “The Digital i European panel covers approximately 10,000 accounts in the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Poland and the Netherlands.”
First Kill – Photo: Netflix
This data became extremely useful when we tried to decipher why First kill was canceled last month. The cancellation led to many headlines trying to pick what happened to cause the show to be cancelled. However, as Digital I observed, shows with a completion rate below 50% are often subject to cancellation.
Vahdati added that this is not always the case, saying, “when Netflix released a large number of original series each month, there were sometimes canceled shows with a relatively high completion rate.”
If we break down the completion rate of First Kill, you can see of those who started episode 1, only 66.94% went on to watch the second episode. This drops further by the end of Season 1, with only 43.11% completing the final episode.
Performance ratings for First Kill on Netflix
If we look at this past year, which has not been a strong year for renewals thus far, we can compare two shows that were renewed to two that were not.
- Heartstopper i saw 73% of people who started watching finish the season.
- Lawyer Lincoln i saw 56% complete the first season
- Resident Evil only 45% finished the first season (which in part led to its cancellation)
- First kill, canceled in early August 2022, saw only a 44% completion rate.
Netflix completion figures show in 2022
If we go back to 2021 and look at three shows, this trend continues.
- Squid gamewhich is without a doubt the benchmark title for any hit Netflix title, saw an 87% first season completion.
- Arcane saw 60% complete series.
- The canceled series The irregular ones only 41% made it to the end.
Netflix completion figures show in 2021
We may also reveal a few more levels of completion for some of Netflix’s biggest shows before we leave you.
- Of those who started the third season of Love, death and robots, 67% completed the season.
- Pieces of her had a completion rate of 54%
- Invention of Anna had a completion rate of 42%
Netflix did not respond to a request for comment on this piece.