Analysis from the China understander – Beijing’s fear of Trump: His re-election would be a disaster for China

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The extent of the damage Donald Trump is inflicting on the United States of America is increasing day by day. First, the attempt by a crowd to obstruct the peaceful transfer of power, characteristic of every functioning democracy, in the Capitol.

Now suspicion that the controversial show star and dubious businessman may have stolen top-secret government documents. Either way, the FBI was looking for such documents at Trump’s golf resort.

Perhaps, commentators in the US speculate, it was Trump’s plan to sell essential documents for US security, including nuclear codes, to enemy states. It is not clear if this is true.

Trump claims a “witch hunt” is underway against him

If circumstantial evidence were found to corroborate this suspicion, it could lead to allegations of espionage and high treason. Trump tells his supporters that the Democrats are organizing a “witch hunt” against him.

His disciples are behind him: more than 70 percent believe in his lies. So that he and not Joe Biden have won the fall 2021 election. Trump is currently roaming the country supporting his party’s Republican mid-term candidates, who believe he is the real president of America.

If it helps them now hold political office, they could pass the former head of state as the winner after the next presidential election in November 2024. Even if he doesn’t win the election again.

Republicans want to manipulate the election results

Republicans, meanwhile, are working on strategies to manipulate the upcoming elections in their favor. Through so-called “gerrymandering”, electoral districts are redesigned so that white and Protestant Anglo-Saxons have a majority within them and not non-white minorities.

In fact, Republicans are on the decline. The USA, whose society is on average younger than that of other industrialized nations, tends towards the Democrats. Or at least, depending on the issue, the opinion of the Democrats.

In the US, for example, there is a majority who would like to grant women the right to abortion in some cases. There is also a majority for a security check that shoppers would have to go through before they can purchase semi-automatic weapons in the mall.

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Red Alert: How China’s Aggressive Foreign Policy in the Pacific Is Leading to a Global War

Beijing closely follows developments in the United States

If the plans of Trump and his Republican loyalists work, the United States could become a one-party state as early as January 2025. This would make the heart of the free world as democratic as the People’s Republic of China.

Beijing closely follows developments in the United States. When Trump supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021 and Mike Pence had to hide in the building’s bunker, the US military chief called his “People’s Liberation Army” counterpart. He assured him and China that the military would not allow Trump to start a war against the People’s Republic.

For the time being, people in Beijing may have been reassured. But looking ahead, one of the scenarios that those in power in China are realizing in their foreign policy models is the total collapse of the United States.

The US elections of 2024 are also important for Russia

This currently rather unlikely scenario would spell the end of Washington’s presence in the Western Pacific. And thus pave the way for Beijing to militarily dominate the region and conquer Taiwan.

The outcome of the 2024 elections should also be very important for Russia. If Tump were to devastate the United States and end up leaving NATO, it would increase Russia’s chances of regaining the territory previously occupied by the USSR.

For Beijing, Trump’s re-election would be a disaster. Under him, relations between the two countries have deteriorated extremely. The trade war between the two countries did not end even under his successor Biden.

Many of the Trump-era tariffs on Chinese imports are still in place. As the current conflict over Taiwan shows, Beijing can use Biden to calibrate, escalate and suppress the military threat. Trump would probably react rather fiercely and risk aggravating the situation.

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