Nature Geoscience study reveals Thwaites ‘Doomsday’ Glacier melt could trip global catastrophe

A new study has found that the rapid retreat of an Antarctic glacier would have catastrophic ramifications for global sea level.

Spanning nearly 200,000 km², just below the total continental mass of the state of Victoria, the Thwaites Glacier is an exceptionally large and extensive body of ice in West Antarctica.

Also known as the “doomsday glacier,” the mass has been described as part of the “weak underbelly” of the West Antarctic ice sheet and is closely monitored due to its vulnerability to significant retreat that could lead to extreme elevation. sea ​​level.

Scientists mapped a critical area of ​​the seafloor in front of Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica for the first time in high resolution, giving them a window into how quickly it has retreated and moved in the past.
Camera iconScientists mapped a critical area of ​​the seafloor in front of Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica for the first time in high resolution, giving them a window into how quickly it has retreated and moved in the past. Credit: Alastair Graham / University of South Florida/Pennsylvania

A new study published in Nature Geoscience has done little to allay fears of a significant environmental threat.

By mapping the glacier’s historical retreat, the researchers found that the glacier’s base had detached from the seafloor at some point in the past two centuries.

This triggered the rapid disintegration of the Thwaites “recently in the mid-20th century”, during which the glacier retreated at a staggering 2.1 km per year, or twice the speed observed by the satellite in the last decade.

“Thwaites is really holding on for the nails today,” co-writer Robert Larter said in a statement.

“We should expect to see large changes on small time scales in the future, even from year to year, once the glacier retreats beyond a shallow ridge in its bed. . “

The researchers said similar rapid withdrawal pulses would likely occur in the “near future,” as the stranding zone migrates to stabilizing points on the sea floor.

Capable of raising sea levels by several meters, the erosion of the glacier’s undersea base is a direct consequence of warming due to climate change.

Such an extreme rise in sea level could prove catastrophic for the environment and its inhabitants around the world.

According to the United Nations Environment Program, scientists conclude that if global temperatures reach 5 ° C above pre-industrial levels, there is a one in 20 chance that average sea level rise will exceed 2 m.

The latest research results reveal that the melting of the Thwaites Glacier lives up to this model.

An increase of 5 ° C is compatible with an uncontrolled increase in emissions.

A man walks past an abandoned house after it was flooded with water due to rising sea levels in Sidogemah, Central Java, Indonesia.
Camera iconA man walks past an abandoned house after it was flooded with water due to rising sea levels in Sidogemah, Central Java, Indonesia. Credit: Alangkara fingers/POPE

“Such an increase over the next 80 years could trigger the gradual displacement of millions of people around the world and engulf an area of ​​land three times the size of Texas,” writes UNEP.

“Much of the land loss would occur in important food-producing areas such as the Nile Delta.

“Coastal communities, ports and the Netherlands like Bangladesh would be hit hard.

“Many small islands would disappear. The major cities of the world, including London, New York and Shanghai, would end up, at least in part, under water.

“In a ‘normal’ scenario where temperatures rise by 5 ° C, the picture is even bleaker beyond 2100, with an expected increase of 7.5 million.”

And Australia will not escape the threat.

About 85% of the population lives within 50 km of the coast, as well as a significant part of the country’s infrastructure, such as transport and communication networks.

A CoreLogic report released in March 2022 found that storm surges and coastal erosion could impact residential properties across Australia by $ 25 billion over the next 30 years.

The coastal suburbs are under threat in Australia.
Camera iconThe coastal suburbs are under threat in Australia. Credit: Provided

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