How many LGBT voters are there in Texas?

AUSTIN (KXAN) – Human Rights Campaign researchers showed a new report that LGBTQ voters are poised to become one of the fastest-growing voting blocs in the country. By 2040, one in five Texas voters will be part of the group, according to the study.

“(LGBTQ voters) are emerging as one of the most influential constituencies in the country whose impact will permanently transform and reshape the American electoral landscape,” the report said.

In that election — where early voting has already begun — researchers said 11.3 percent of the county’s eligible voting population was LGBTQ-identified. They say that number is slightly higher than the 2020 general election, when it was 10.8%.

“The LGBTQ+ electorate was fundamental to securing Joe Biden’s victory in several key states — and subsequently winning the presidency. If LGBTQ+ voters had stayed home, Donald Trump likely would have won re-election,” the report said.

The report goes on to say that by 2030, one in seven voters will identify as LGBTQ, and by 2040, nearly one in five, according to their analysis.

Why? Younger generations are much more likely to identify with LGBTQ.

Only about 5% of people born between 1934 and 1945 identify as part of the group. In comparison, over a quarter of Gen Z adults born between 1997-2003 identify as LGBTQ.

Although LGBTQ people are not a monolith, the report says that this group of voters tends to support pro-equality candidates.

The growth of the LGBTQ voting bloc in Texas mirrors the national pattern, according to the study. In 2022, 12.3% of the voting population identified as LGBTQ. In 2030, they predict that number will rise to 16.6%, and in 2040, nearly 20%.

“(These trends) are not surprising … I’ve seen the voting bloc change, evolve and grow,” said Andrea Segovia, senior policy and field adviser for Transgender Education Network of Texas.

“But for people living in Texas, it feels contradictory,” she continued. “You see the voting bloc growing and you see the attacks on LGBTQ people increasing.”

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said in April that if re-elected, he would prioritize passing legislation in Texas next session that would reverse Florida’s controversial “Don’t Say Gay” bill. This Florida law bans classroom lessons about sexual orientation or gender identity for children under fourth grade, saying it is not age-appropriate for children to learn about this material.

“I will make this legislation a top priority next session,” Patrick said in a campaign email.

In addition, over the past year, Governor Greg Abbott said that helping trans children receive gender-affirming treatment should be considered child abuse and investigated as such.

“We have this big voting block and yet you see the most anti-trans legislation,” Segovia said. “I call it their dying breath.”

Segovia said that regardless of your political affiliation, it’s important to get to the polls and make your voice heard.

“Looking at these numbers coming from our recent midterms, we’re missing huge chunks of people,” Segovia said. “We have one week (of voting). And we really have to like, turn the car around and try to make a difference.”

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